Market Analysis

Sep 2, 2024

Ethereum is Dying?

The first key signal to watch is the ongoing Ethereum Foundation sales. 

The Ethereum Foundation, Jump Trading, ICO-linked wallets, and other long-term holders have sold over $600M worth of ETH in the past month, according to Spot on chain. 

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Even Vitalik Buterin sold $10M of his ETH, according to Lookonchain, or just sent ETH to the Railgun mixer. 

Guess why? Likely for sale! 

Second indicator of problems β€” ETH/BTC weakness

Just look at the ETH/BTC chart over the last couple of years  

Do you see any sign of this downturn stopping? Ethereum's weakness against Bitcoin is evident. To reverse the trend, fundamental changes in the project are necessary. 

Do we have such changes, or only more problems? Let's find out! 

Problem 1: "Risk-staking Protocols"

The primary danger of Restaking Protocols is their interconnection. For example, we restake ETH in

Ether_fi, then provide $eETH in EtherFi's Symbiotic LRT pool. We further wrap this in Pendle, obtain PT, and continue placing these tokens elsewhere. 

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But that's not all! We can also lend these tokens, creating an even longer chain.  

Sounds like a highly effective use of capital, doesn't it?

NO! it sounds like a scam. What if a link in that chain breaks?
 

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Imagine if EtherFi were hacked or another issue occurred with this or any other protocol. All this "capital-effective" chain could break, leading to a significant crisis in the crypto sector. We strongly advise you to withdraw restaked $ETH after the EigenLayer Airdrop. 

It's only a matter of time before it goes BOOM 

Problem 2: ETH-ETF didn't save the situation 

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As we can see, ETH ETF inflow looks like all institutional investors buy ETH-ETF just for fun or on the change from the BTC ETF purchase.

It is obvious that ETH ETF hasn't lived up to expectations and no one wants to buy it even now, when the entire stock market is at all-time highs.

Problem 3: Inflation 

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In Q2 2024, Ethereum experienced its highest quarterly inflation rate since transitioning to Proof of Stake consensus with The Merge in September 2022. 

This surge in inflation is attributed to a significant drop in the burn rate, driven by unusually low gas prices. 

More coins on the market β€” lower the price! It's simple! Ethereum needs a solution to this problem too.

Problem 4: L2 Projects

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The rollup strategy expects L2s to keep using Ethereum, boosting its users and fees. But, L2s might become independent and stop paying fees to Ethereum. 

If so, Ethereum could lose transaction value and revenue in the long run.

Ethereum needs a solution to this problem too (x2)

Vitalik Buterin even started to promote Airdrops 
 

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Because Vitalik understands that Ethereum needs Airdrop Hunters to pay fees and create activity in the blockchain. Looks like desperate attempts to win back the audience 

Do we have something good?  
 

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There is some good news for Ethereum. 

All of them starting with the word "Still" say that ETH is like an old grandpa who can still do something.
 

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Ethereum are still: 

β€’ 1st in revenue, though Tron and Tether are rapidly catching up. 

β€’ 1st in total value locked (TVL) with $50 billion. 

β€’ 3rd in the number of token holders, with BNB Chain and Tron already surpassing Ethereum. 

β€’ 7th largest protocol by monthly active users (MAUs) with 6.5 million. 

β€’ 11th in transaction count. 

β€’ 12th in transactions per second (TPS). 

β€’ 12th largest by daily active users (DAUs) with 371,000, trailing behind Bitcoin L1’s 410,000.

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ETH users are at levels seen during the 2021 bull market in terms of daily transactions. 

However, gwei is at a record low because users aren't paying high fees for minting NFTs or hunting memecoins on ETH.

Ethereum is currently facing challenging times, and predicting its future is difficult. 

We've provided you with the facts above, but as always, do your own research (DYOR). 

Conclusion:

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